Publication

Spotlight: Prime London & Country – Autumn 2017

Making sense of uncertainty

This time last year, we published our five-year price forecasts for the prime housing markets with the information available to us at the time – which, given the recent referendum, was very little. Our forecast then was for two years of no growth followed by a bounce back, before returning to the long-term trend rate at the end of the five-year period.

If 2016 was tough to forecast, 2017 is equally challenging. The political landscape looks even less clear, with Theresa May holding a minority government, a US administration seemingly in chaos, and the complexity of Brexit becoming much more apparent.

In her , Kirsty Bennison delves into new data from TwentyCi which shows how price sensitive the prime market has become as a result. However, the overwhelming evidence is that where sellers have realistic expectations on price the market is active.

Yolande Barnes and Lucian Cook have taken up the challenge of forecasting in prime central London, building in a further period of uncertainty post-Brexit and looking at how longer-term drivers for growth compare to those of the past.

What these two articles tell us is that prime property sentiment is fragile, but London has not ground to a halt. Prime London may not be able to maintain the stellar growth trajectory of 1979 to 2014, but it retains its time zone, language and cultural offerings, which underpin its status as the world’s business hub. And, as Mat Oakley, our head of commercial research, , there have been some big votes of confidence in the London market, despite Brexit.

We are also including for the prime regions outside London, where buyers can get at least twice the square footage for their money compared with prime central London.

The stop-start nature of the ripple effect is likely to persist for a little longer, but the platform is set for a renewed flow of wealth between London, its commuter zone and beyond.

In the meantime, the expectation of a price-sensitive market means buyers and sellers will need to continue to keep their feet on the ground.


Eight at-a-glance facts you need to know about the prime market

Click to expand

Articles within this publication

9 article(s) in this publication

Key contacts

Simon Smith

Simon Smith

Senior Director / Head of Research & Consultancy
Research & Consultancy

Two Exchange Square

+852 2842 4573

 

Subscribe to kamaco research

 

Would you like to be notified via email about new research?